In May 2023, the Iranian dissident group GhyamSarnegouni released a series of classified documents detailing Iran’s strategic plans in Syria and Lebanon. These documents outlined Tehran’s efforts to bolster its regional influence through military support, economic initiatives, and cultural ties. Recent developments, such as the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon, have significantly undermined Iran’s position in the region.
These leaked documents illuminate the clerical regime’s regional strategies and provide a stark perspective on how its agenda has unraveled. They underscore the regime’s mounting challenges and foreshadow the struggles it will likely face in maintaining control in the future.
Economic Integration to Expand Control
The first document outlines the Iranian regime’s aim to establish robust economic ties with Lebanon. Key initiatives include:
Reactivating the Joint Economic Cooperation Commission, with infrastructure projects led by the regime’s Ministry of Roads and Urban Development and Lebanon’s Ministry of Economy.
Dominating Lebanon’s energy sector, involving fuel exports and technical collaboration with Lebanese agencies, supported by Iranian firms such as MAPNA.
Exporting industrial machinery and production lines to modernize Lebanese industries while boosting Iran’s own economic output.
Establishing Iranian retail chains like Shahrvand and Refah in Lebanon to introduce Iranian products to Lebanese markets.
Launching a shipping line between Iran and Lebanon to facilitate trade.
The plan also includes leveraging Lebanon as a gateway to African markets through its diaspora, aiming to expand Iran’s regional economic influence.
Political and Military Maneuvers
Iran’s political strategy in Lebanon revolves around bolstering Hezbollah and its allies while attempting to sway non-aligned factions:
Economic and logistical support for Hezbollah and Amal, aimed at consolidating their political and military positions.
Building ties with other Lebanese parties and individuals sympathetic to Tehran’s goals, while cautiously engaging with groups opposed to Iran.
Supporting opposition figures from Bahrain and Saudi Arabia residing in Lebanon to counteract Gulf influence in the region.
Militarily, the document emphasizes enhancing Hezbollah’s cyber capabilities and sustaining its preparedness against Israeli threats. It also advocates for fostering pro-Iranian narratives through media outlets in Lebanon.
Cultural and Religious Diplomacy
Cultural initiatives play a key role in Iran’s strategy to foster goodwill and counter anti-Iran sentiments:
Promoting Iranian cinema, history, and education through cultural exchanges, including Persian language courses in Lebanese schools and universities.
Strengthening ties with religious authorities to highlight commonalities and portray Iran as a unifying Islamic force.
Organizing events like the “Nowruz Diplomacy” initiative to build bridges with Lebanon’s diverse communities.
Targeting Broader Geopolitical Goals
The document reveals plans to use Lebanon as a platform for broader geopolitical ambitions:
Supporting Palestinian groups to oppose Israeli policies and promote resistance.
Establishing transit routes through Iraq and Syria for economic and strategic connectivity.
Strengthening ties with Lebanese diaspora communities in Africa to further Iran’s regional reach.
Iranian Regime’s Strategic Planning in Lebanon
Another classified document further elaborates on Tehran’s strategic priorities in Lebanon, emphasizing a multifaceted approach that integrates military, political, cultural, and now economic dimensions. Central to the regime’s policy is unwavering support for Hezbollah and its allies, with a clear objective to bolster their military and political power while solidifying Iran’s influence across various sectors in Lebanon.
The document outlines a shift in focus toward economic engagement to strengthen Hezbollah’s base. This includes leveraging private sector initiatives to reinforce Lebanon’s infrastructure and creating deterrence against Israel. The Iranian regime’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and trade apparatus are identified as key players in this strategy, which aims to increase Hezbollah’s resilience against external threats and maintain its dominance in Lebanon’s internal power triangle involving the army, resistance, and government.
Key proposed measures include fostering ties with Lebanese sects and groups to enhance Hezbollah’s social base, consolidating relations with Shiite communities to ensure unity, and deepening religious, academic, and cultural connections to expand the resistance’s influence. The strategy also emphasizes formal visits by high-ranking Iranian officials and Lebanese allies, alongside hosting Lebanese delegations in Tehran to strengthen bilateral ties.
Additionally, the document highlights the importance of addressing the Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon, noting that even symbolic efforts by Tehran to assist with the issue could yield significant diplomatic benefits. This gesture is viewed as a low-cost yet impactful way to improve Lebanon’s perception of Iran.
According to the document, the regime also aimed to expedite the implementation of previously signed agreements and infrastructure projects, seeing these economic ties as crucial for cementing Hezbollah’s position. The document suggested that consistent expressions of Tehran’s willingness to aid Lebanon, despite political resistance, should remain a prominent feature of its foreign policy narrative.
Iranian Regime’s Threat Assessment in Syria and Lebanon
The third document, titled “Threats Posed by the Zionist Regime to Iran’s Position in Syria and Lebanon and Proposed Countermeasures,” outlines Tehran’s perception of increased Israeli military actions in Syria and Lebanon. It details strategies for countering these threats, including diplomatic efforts, military enhancements, and media campaigns. The document underscores Iran’s commitment to supporting allied groups in the region and its intent to strengthen its strategic foothold despite external pressures.
These disclosures have been instrumental in understanding Iran’s regional maneuvers and have shed light on the complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics. The documents also highlighted the regime’s internal deliberations and its responses to external military and diplomatic challenges.
A translation of the document follows:
Part A: The Nature of Israeli Threats in Syria and Lebanon
Increased Air and Missile Strikes: The escalation of Israeli air and missile strikes targeting Syrian and Iranian positions, as well as Hezbollah’s assets, personnel, and equipment, has intensified.
Diplomatic Pressure on Syria and Russia: Israel has sought to convince Syria and Russia to support the removal of Iranian military presence in Syria. In 2018, Israel, with Russian mediation, pressured Iran to withdraw forces and allied resistance units to positions at least 80 kilometers away from Israel’s northern borders. This partial retreat emboldened further Israeli attacks.
Legitimizing Israeli Actions: Israel has successfully shaped international narratives to portray its military operations in Syria as legitimate self-defense while framing Iran’s military presence in Syria as an illegitimate and destabilizing force.
Part B: Strategies for Neutralizing Israeli Threats in Syria and Lebanon
Strategic Consultations:
Regular consultations between Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), military forces, and intelligence agencies to evaluate responses to Israeli attacks.
Collaboration with Syrian political, military, and security officials, as well as Hezbollah leadership, to develop coordinated countermeasures.
Diplomatic Engagement with Russia:
Intensified diplomatic efforts to urge Russia to curb Israeli aggression, leveraging recent shifts in Moscow-Tel Aviv relations amidst the Ukraine crisis.
Enhanced Defensive Capabilities:
Strengthening Iran’s military and intelligence infrastructure in Syria and Lebanon to counter Israeli strikes effectively.
Expanding the Conflict Zone:
Bringing the conflict into Israeli-occupied territories by activating Palestinian resistance groups to intensify their operations.
Support for Resistance Forces:
Increasing financial, logistical, and strategic support for Hezbollah and Palestinian factions aligned with Iran’s objectives.
Media and Public Relations:
Utilizing media platforms to challenge Israeli narratives and highlight its violations of international law and human rights.
Establishing a specialized media office to produce content in Arabic, Hebrew, Turkish, Armenian, and other regional languages, focusing on countering Israeli propaganda, promoting Islamic unity, and exposing apartheid policies in the occupied territories.
Economic Stability for Allies:
Supporting the economic stability of Syria and Lebanon to prevent collapse, which could undermine resistance movements.
Lebanese Advocacy in International Forums:
Encouraging the Lebanese government to adopt a more proactive stance in regional and international forums against Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace and sovereignty.
Syrian Collaboration on the Golan Heights:
Partnering with the Syrian government in international efforts to reclaim the occupied Golan Heights.
Proposed Media Strategy
To counter Israel’s narrative and influence, Iran will establish a dedicated media and public diplomacy unit. This office will:
Produce multilingual content to expose Israeli violations and promote resistance narratives.
Focus on countering Iranophobia and Shiaphobia while advocating Islamic unity.
Highlight Israeli apartheid, occupation, and human rights abuses to galvanize global public opinion.
Source » ncr-iran