The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marked the culmination of a catastrophic year for the Iranian regime. This development significantly weakened the “Axis of Resistance,” a coalition of forces aligned with Iran in the region, following a series of heavy blows in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Simultaneously, Iran faces a crippling economic crisis, with the rial plunging to its lowest historical value.
Mounting Setbacks Across the Region
In April 2024, Israel struck a building near Iran’s embassy in Damascus, referred to as the “consulate.” In retaliation, Iran launched an attack involving over 300 drones and missiles against Israel. However, this offensive failed to achieve its objectives and underscored the regime’s growing vulnerabilities.
The regime’s challenges deepened in May with the sudden death of Ebrahim Raisi, the regime’s former president and key figure within the regime, in a helicopter crash attributed to thick fog. Raisi was infamous for his role in the 1988 massacre of political prisoners, and was seen as a likely successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. His death left a significant void in the regime’s leadership.
In July, another blow came when Israel penetrated Iranian security to assassinate Hamas commander Ismail Haniyeh, who was in Tehran for the presidential inauguration. A remote-controlled bomb, detonated in an IRGC guest house, marked a significant escalation in Israel’s operations against Iran’s regional allies.
September brought further setbacks when Israel targeted Hezbollah. On September 27, Israel assassinated former Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Shortly thereafter, thousands of handheld pagers and walkie-talkies intended for Hezbollah operatives exploded simultaneously in Lebanon and Syria, killing or injuring numerous commanders. This attack dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah’s operational capabilities.
In October, Israel’s army eliminated Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during a patrol in Rafah. Sinwar, deemed the “mastermind” behind the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, was a central figure in Hamas. His death significantly diminished Hamas’s value to the Iranian regime as a proxy force.
Economic Collapse and Political Isolation
On the domestic front, Iran’s economic crisis has reached alarming levels. In November, the Iranian rial depreciated by 46%, making it the least valuable currency in the world. This collapse was further exacerbated by the announcement of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, raising expectations of renewed “maximum pressure” sanctions.
Adding to its woes, the regime faced a diplomatic defeat in November when Hezbollah agreed to a cease-fire with Israel, mandating the withdrawal of military forces from southern Lebanon. This agreement allowed only the Lebanese army and security forces to operate in the region, stripping Iran of a key avenue for military influence and destabilization.
The Fall of Bashar al-Assad
The most significant blow to the Iranian regime came in December with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Rebel forces captured Damascus, forcing the Quds Force, a branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, to retreat. This loss cut off a critical supply route used to support Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies in the region. Some Iranian officials compared the event to the fall of the Berlin Wall, which heralded the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Conclusion
The year 2024 has been marked by unprecedented challenges for the Iranian regime. From military defeats and leadership crises to economic freefall and the loss of key allies, the regime’s ability to project power in the region has been severely undermined. The fall of Assad’s regime represents not just a symbolic, but also a strategic loss that could reshape the regional balance of power for years to come.
Source » ynetnews