The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, one of the most critical regional allies of the Iranian theocracy, has triggered a seismic political shift in the Middle East. For Tehran, Assad’s downfall marks not only the loss of a key partner but also a devastating blow to its broader expansionist ambitions.
Iranian Leaders Acknowledge the Impact
Ahmad Khatami, a senior member of Iran’s Guardian Council and Assembly of Experts, recently admitted to the challenges posed by Assad’s fall. In a speech, he urged leaders of Iran’s proxy forces in Iraq to remain vigilant, warning them against being “deceived by America’s false promises.” He called for decisive action, emphasizing the need to “break the feet of Takfiri terrorists in Syria.”
In a critical statement, Khatami declared:
“Ignorant and careless writers must not discourage the people by claiming the resistance has ended. Where has the resistance gone? It remains strong and will persist in the region until the United States is expelled.”
This rhetoric underscores the Iranian regime’s desperation to preserve its influence and counterbalance its strategic losses.
The Domino Effect of Assad’s Fall
For Iran’s leadership, Assad’s regime represented a cornerstone of its “resistance axis,” a network of proxies and allies advancing Tehran’s geopolitical agenda. Assad’s fall not only erodes Iran’s regional influence but also signals a domino effect, threatening the stability and viability of other Iranian-backed groups and actors.
The inability of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies to shield Assad’s regime has exposed their vulnerabilities. The political and military fragility of these forces has been laid bare, demonstrating a lack of both motivation and capability to withstand evolving regional dynamics.
Challenges Facing Iran’s Proxy Forces
One of the most significant repercussions of Assad’s downfall has been the strain on Iran’s primary proxy in Iraq, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), also known as Hashd al-Shaabi. This group, modeled after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, was initially established to combat ISIS but quickly became a tool for Tehran to project power in Iraq and beyond.
The PMF now faces two fundamental challenges:
Intensifying Internal Pressures: Iraqi political and social groups increasingly view the PMF as a source of instability and corruption. These sentiments have grown stronger in the wake of Assad’s collapse, as many Iraqis question the group’s continued relevance.
Strategic Weakening of Iranian Support: With the IRGC losing its regional grip, Iran’s ability to sustain its proxies has significantly diminished. This decline has forced Tehran’s allies to confront new political and military realities.
Statements by key figures highlight the shifting dynamics. Faleh Fayyadh, head of the PMF, recently denied allegations that his forces had entered Syrian territory, signaling a retreat from aggressive regional intervention. Yet his acknowledgment that “what is happening in Syria has a direct impact on the national security of Iraq” underscores the far-reaching consequences of Assad’s fall.
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a prominent ally of Tehran, described the developments in Syria as “the beginning of a new project in the region.” Such remarks reflect a growing recognition that Iran’s regional strategy is unraveling.
Broader Regional Implications
The fall of Assad has reverberated beyond Iraq. In Lebanon, Hezbollah—another pillar of Iran’s “resistance axis”—is grappling with its own setbacks. Reports suggest that the United States is pressuring Iraq’s government to dissolve the PMF, further eroding Tehran’s influence.
London-based Al-Arab noted that the U.S. is leveraging the defeat of Hezbollah and Assad to weaken Iran’s proxies. Similarly, Al-Sharq al-Awsat quoted an advisor to Iraq’s Prime Minister, who stated that Iraq can no longer serve as the axis of Iran’s resistance following Assad’s fall and Hezbollah’s weakening.
Khamenei’s Strategic Vision in Crisis
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has consistently emphasized the importance of Iran’s regional influence as a cornerstone of the regime’s survival and expansionist ambitions. He has highlighted the critical role of proxy forces in achieving this strategic depth, describing their efforts as vital not just for Iran’s security but also for its ideological and geopolitical objectives.
In a notable speech, Khamenei stated:
“Do not overlook the expansive geography of resistance. We must not confine ourselves to our immediate region. This comprehensive, cross-border perspective is, at times, even more critical than the country’s most pressing obligations.”
This perspective underscores Khamenei’s insistence on maintaining a vast network of influence stretching across the Middle East. However, the collapse of Assad’s regime has starkly revealed the weaknesses in this vision. Proxy forces, once touted as the regime’s strategic asset, are now facing immense internal and external pressures, highlighting the fragility of Tehran’s ambitions. As the region adjusts to shifting dynamics, Khamenei’s vision appears increasingly out of step with the unfolding realities.
Yet Assad’s collapse exposes the flaws in this strategy, signaling the decline of Iran regime’s regional dominance.
Conclusion
The fall of Bashar al-Assad represents a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics. For Iran’s regime, it signifies the failure of its regional expansionist policies and the beginning of the end for its proxy groups. As Tehran’s influence wanes, the Middle East stands at the threshold of a new era, marked by shifting alliances and a redefinition of power dynamics.
Source » presstv