Externally, the Iranian regime appears preoccupied with managing its proxies, future investments in Syria, and rehabilitating Hezbollah—but behind the scenes, Iranian society is approaching collapse.
Air pollution, shortages of oil and gas, frequent power outages, unpaid salaries, and brain drain are just some of the problems that Iranian citizens face. These issues are worsening daily with cumulative damage.
In conversations with researchers studying Iranian society, issues of corruption and sanctions emerge. Will all these troubles lead Iranian citizens to revolt? The question remains open.
What tops the agenda of Iranian citizens these days?
According to Thamar Eilam Gindin, an Iran specialist at the University of Haifa’s Ezri Center for Iran and Persian Gulf Studies, “In recent weeks, it has mainly been the new hijab law, and in the past two years, it has generally been about the hijab and women’s rights.
“The fall of [Syrian President Bashar] Assad is also on the agenda, in two contexts: One is that [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei’s end is approaching because all his proxies are being eliminated one after another. The second relates to the electricity crisis: There are planned power outages, and I remind you that we’re in a very cold period.
“Iranians are returning to heating with gas and oil, which never ceased but claims victims every winter. Last week even government offices didn’t operate every day because there isn’t enough electricity to run them,” she said.
According to Professor Meir Litvak, a senior research associate at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University, the causes of the problems can be divided into sanctions, corruption and poor management by the Iranian regime.
“Western sanctions make things very difficult for them, including in the oil sector. Iran needs to purchase equipment to renew oil production, but sanctions and costs make this challenging.
“The oil they do have is sold to the Chinese at a discount. Iran has potential for oil and gas exports, but they have shortages of both. There’s a decrease in production and increase in consumption that leads, among other things, to problems in electricity production and supply,” Litvak said
The second factor is mismanagement of the Iranian economy. “There is corruption on a massive scale. Last year, Iran ranked 149th out of 190 countries on the global corruption index (with 190 being the most corrupt).
“The government also subsidizes food and operates with several different exchange rates, which is another gateway to corruption. In global currency terms—770,000 rials to the dollar was recorded, an all-time low that leads to food price increases,” added Litvak.
Those who can, leave
Reports about events in Iran paint a grim picture. Severe drug problems, routine executions, and harsh “treatment” of modesty issues all point to evil combined with corruption by the regime and the Revolutionary Guards. Those who can, leave. Most remain and suffer.
According to Eilam Gindin, “Brain drain is one of the biggest problems of the Islamic Republic. They invest heavily in education, schools for gifted boys and girls—but then there are no positions available. Because for positions you need connections.
“So, they flee to the West and excel there. For example, [the late] Maryam Mirzakhani—the first and only Iranian woman to be honored with the Fields Medal, the equivalent of the Nobel Prize in mathematics,” she said.
Litvak noted that “100,000 professionals leave Iran annually, mainly doctors and engineers. There is a severe shortage of nurses in the country. To the point where there’s a phenomenon of nurse suicides due to overwork.”
“On the other hand,” said Eilam Gindin, “this situation doesn’t provoke action. What prompts action are economic issues. Now they’re waiting for the spark that will ignite the next riots, like the death of Mahsa Amini who died in police custody [in September 2022] after violating the hijab law. This time the Islamic Republic doesn’t have allies like [Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan] Nasrallah, who sent 22,000 soldiers to help suppress the protests two years ago.”
Drug traffic is also flourishing in Iran. Eilam Gindin continued, “Drug trafficking is one of the crimes punishable by death. In recent months, dozens of people have been executed each month for drugs (the other two leading charges are rape and murder). There’s a severe drug problem because people want to escape reality and feel they have no hope.”
Litvak points to all these issues and adds, “The electricity problems that erupted now due to gas shortages lead to the use of low-quality fuel oil, which causes terrible air pollution. Tehran, situated between mountains, suffers from a severe air pollution problem because the air is trapped there. In the last month, schools and government offices were closed after residents were told not to go outside. This pollution also affects other cities.
“Another problem that arises is that people like teachers work and don’t receive their salary from the state on time. There have been many strikes in the last two years. Oil industry workers aren’t receiving wages and pensioners see their pensions being severely eroded.”
Additionally, Litvak reported that a significant portion of Iranian banks are bankrupt. There’s a water crisis due to improper management of water resources, and the list goes on.
All this, both experts conclude, creates a difficult reality for Iranian citizens.
Q: Do Iranian citizens follow the regime’s investments in its war against Israel?
“They clearly do,” Eilam Gindin said, explaining that Iranians are acutely aware of their government’s foreign spending. For two decades, protesters have criticized the regime’s prioritization of foreign conflicts over domestic needs. A common protest chant rejects involvement in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen in favor of focusing on Iran.
“After Assad’s fall, the extent of Iranian investment in Syria was revealed—staying there cost $50 billion, plus another $30 billion defined as Syria’s debt to Iran, which presumably won’t be repaid. With $80 billion, they could have fed many poor people, built schools, and more,” she said.
Litvak added, “The regime is begging to lift Western sanctions because they’re in a desperate economic situation. But Khamenei is very suspicious of the West. Maybe with [U.S. President-elect Donald] Trump, he’ll try to go for a new agreement.”
Q: If the situation is so difficult, why aren’t the Iranian people revolting?
“Because of fear,” Litvak said. “The regime has proven its efficiency and brutality in suppression, killing hundreds, if not thousands. This creates fear.
“The regime controls the internet and monitors the network quickly to silence protests. The Iranians also see the results of the ‘Arab Spring’ and the chaos in various places and tell themselves, ‘Who needs this? Maybe if we overthrow the clerics, we’ll get a Revolutionary Guards dictatorship?’”
Nevertheless, Eilam Gindin thinks that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s calls on the Iranian people “not to lose hope, because the regime grows weaker every day” fall on attentive ears.
“The Iranians are waiting for Bibi to do the work for them. After all, from their perspective, he eliminated [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar, Nasrallah and [Hamas leader Ismail] Haniyeh, and they’re calling on him to eliminate their leader too. There’s admiration among Iranians in Iran and in exile for Bibi because of this, and it’s somewhat heartbreaking.”
Regarding uprising and revolution—Litvak and Eilam Gindin both find it difficult to predict.
According to Eilam Gindin, “What will bring them to the streets isn’t Netanyahu’s call, but the next thing that happens, which we don’t know what it will be.
“We didn’t think the protests after Mahsa Amini’s death would last more than a week or two, and they lasted more than half a year, and in fact, the movement is still alive.
“On the other hand, the death of 16-year-old Armita Geravand a year later under exactly the same circumstances didn’t turn into a massive protest, because the Islamic Republic learned from the previous year’s mistakes and knew how to prevent it.
“You just need to look around us to understand that revolution in Iran is a plausible scenario. Whether it happens tomorrow, in a year, or 20 years—that’s another question.
Source » jns