The fall of the Syrian regime and the defeats suffered by the Syrian army on several fronts in the past two weeks have caused serious concern for the Iranian government. Many officials and analysts in Tehran believe the main goal of the war in Syria is to weaken Iran’s influence in the region.
Since the Syrian uprising began in 2011, Iran has been a key supporter of Bashar al-Assad’s government. However, after Assad fled the country, sources close to Iran’s establishment accused him of ignoring their advice and accepting “empty promises” from Arab states and Western powers.
Assad’s fall, a blow to Iran
At the height of the civil war in Syria, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) deployed commanders and fighters to Syria. However, recent events have eroded all of Tehran’s gains and weakened the regional strength it had worked to build.
For years, Iran’s strategy has been to rely on allied groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen to defend itself against Israel and other rivals in the region. Iran refers to these groups as the “Axis of Resistance.”
But the fall of Assad’s government has made many in Tehran feel their own security is at risk. This concern has been reflected in comments from people close to the regime.
With Syria in the hands of the opposition to Assad, Jaafar Bolouri, a political analyst close to Iran’s Supreme Leader, spoke about the importance of Iran’s allies: “The members of the Axis of Resistance are the arms of Iran; they are our allies and our friends.”
He added, “Attacking them is an attack on our strength. So the real target of this war [in Syria] is Iran.”
This view wasn’t limited to analysts. IRGC commanders also made similar statements.
Mohammadreza Gholamreza, a deputy to Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the IRGC Quds Force, stressed Syria’s importance to Iran.
“Syria is a key part of the resistance. Any changes there will also affect Iraq and Yemen, and these are connected to Gaza and Lebanon,” he said.
He also claimed, “One goal of the interference in Syria was and still is to make the world forget about Palestine.”
Referring to the timing of the attacks, Rasoul Saanaei-raad, an analyst close to the IRGC, said: “Just when the resistance [groups], especially Hezbollah, has weakened Israel’s plans to destroy Hamas and annex Gaza and the West Bank, the rebels have launched new attacks.”
He argued that Israel benefits the most from the renewed fighting in Syria.
“These so-called rebels claim to fight Assad, but the real winners are Israel and countries like Turkey and the Arab states supporting terrorism,” he said.
Why was Assad left alone?
While those close to the Iranian government blamed the US, Israel, and Turkey for Assad’s losses, experts in Iran are asking why the Syrian army has failed to defend itself.
Some say the army lacked the resources to fight after years of war. Others point to insufficient support from Iran and Russia, Assad’s principal backers.
The Iranian website Asre Iran summed it up, “Assad had never been this alone.”
“His army didn’t fight. Russia, which was supposed to help Assad, did not do much—or perhaps it did not want to. Iran neither sent forces nor launched missiles at the rebels. All that happened was Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating that Iran supports Syria,” it added.
Immediately after rebel groups took control of the capital, Damascus, Iranian officials and sources close to the IRGC explicitly accused Assad of turning to Arab countries and Western powers.
In the months leading up to Assad’s fall, those countries were moving toward the normalisation of political and economic ties with his regime.
In May, Assad also supported the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in its dispute with Iran over the ownership of three islands in the Gulf.
Referring to these developments, Hossein Shariatmadari, the ultra-conservative editor-in-chief of the Kayhan newspaper, wrote, “Trust in the promises and pledges of some foreign governments was another factor in the rapid fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government.”
Hamidreza Taraghi, a conservative politician and deputy of the Islamic Motalefeh Party, went further, stating, “Assad had cut its relations with Iran.”
Other sources suggested that Iran withheld military support from the Syrian army because Assad was not interested in it and did not request Iran’s help.
“When Iran received indications of Assad’s unwillingness to provide field support, it decided not to intervene but continued its efforts to convince Assad until the last moment. However, Assad realised the hollowness of his enemies’ promises when it was too late,” suggested the IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency.
Hopes for change in Iran
Regardless of the reason behind Iran’s lack of support for Assad during the rebel group’s offensive, many Iranians pointed to the absence of a well-thought-out foreign policy by their officials.
Iranians, whose government has brutally suppressed them for decades, view developments in Syria as another instance of wasted resources. Some even hope for a similar fate to befall the rulers of their own country.
A political science professor in Tehran criticised Iran’s military and economic aid to the Assad regime during the Syrian civil war, asking, “Now, what about all the money the regime invested in Syria? Couldn’t that money have been used to help Iranians suffering from the economic crisis?”
The academic also analysed Assad’s fall as evidence of the Iranian regime’s confusion over foreign policy and its failure to create effective strategic ties in the region.
“Since the 1979 revolution, the officials’ foreign policy has been based solely on ideological slogans, not the realities of the world and the region we live in. The fall of Iran’s main regional ally in less than two weeks is a clear sign of the lack of long-term planning and strategy among our politicians,” the academic told The New Arab.
Meanwhile, for many Iranians, the fall of the Assad dynasty has rekindled hopes for their own freedom from the autocracy that has ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution.
A 45-year-old engineer living in Tehran expressed this sentiment, saying the rebel groups’ victory in Syria resulted from an international consensus to remove the Assad regime.
“I hope international powers reach the same consensus over Iran. If that happens, we will finally rid ourselves of this dictatorial regime, which is also the main supporter of many other oppressive groups and regimes in the region,” he concluded.
Source » newarab