The power dynamics of the Middle East have been profoundly shaped and reshaped in the past year and a half by Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance.”
This network, spanning state, semi-state and non-state actors, has demonstrated unprecedented geographic and military coordination through attacks against Israel, U.S. forces and international shipping lanes. The drastic degradation of Hezbollah and the subsequent and sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has now introduced a seismic shift in this axis, leaving Iran at a critical crossroads.
Examining the ripple effects of this collapse reveals the growing likelihood of Tehran pursuing nuclear breakout, with consequences that could irreversibly alter the global balance of power.
Over the last year, Iran’s Axis of Resistance showcased its operational reach and resilience. From Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen, and the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, these entities orchestrated a series of attacks against Israel, the U.S. and global assets, testing the limits of Western resolve. Notably, Iran itself crossed a significant threshold, directly launching strikes on Israel — escalating its engagement to levels only rhetorically engaged to date.
Despite the firm warnings of U.S. President Biden, the American administration largely refrained from substantive direct retaliation against Iran or even strategic deterrence against her proxies. This perceived inaction emboldened Iran’s proxies, even as Israeli operations earlier in the year inflicted significant damage on infrastructure and personnel, including the high-profile assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran itself in early summer 2024.
Iran’s apparent durability led to a recalibration of regional dynamics. Some Middle East and North Africa countries, wary of escalating regional violence and unconvinced of Washington’s commitment, took steps to improve relations with Tehran. This strategic hedging reflected broader concerns over the U.S.’s diminishing role in the Middle East.
The balance began to shift dramatically in late 2024 when Israel launched, after over a year of rocket fire from Hezbollah, a decisive counteroffensive in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah’s senior leadership with pinpoint strikes, field commanders via the now-famous pager incident, and dismantling its strategic arsenal. This operation, marked by surgical precision and relentless tempo, crippled Hezbollah’s command structure and forced the group into a state of surrender within months. During this time Israel also conducted precision airstrikes against Iranian air defenses, leaving her vulnerable to further attacks.
Syria, long a linchpin of Iran’s regional strategy and home to critical supply lines for Hezbollah, was the next domino to fall. The Assad regime, weakened by years of civil war and unable to withstand the ripple effects of Hezbollah’s collapse, disintegrated rapidly. A coalition of opposition forces, bolstered by murky regional support, swept through key territories. The rapidity of Bashar Assad’s fall underscores how integral Hezbollah and Iran’s backing had been to his survival — and how fragile Iran’s regional strategy truly is.
This collapse leaves Iran with a fractured axis. Hezbollah, once the crown jewel of Iran’s regional proxies, is significantly weakened. The Houthis in Yemen, still capable of regional disruption, now face the looming threat of more robust Israeli retaliation for their aggression. Iran is increasingly isolated, facing not only the loss of its strategic depth but also the diminishing credibility of its deterrence posture.
In the twilight of the Biden administration, Tehran faces a strategic dilemma. On the one hand, it must contend with the prospect of an unpredictable Trump administration, potentially dominated by hawkish figures eager to reverse Biden-era policies. On the other hand, Iran is acutely aware that its conventional deterrence, anchored by Hezbollah and Assad, is eroding — or even for all intents and purposes already gone.
If history offers any lessons, it is that despotic regimes under existential threat often seek asymmetric means of ensuring their survival. For Iran, this could mean the completion of their pursuit of nuclear weapons. North Korea’s nuclear program serves as a compelling case study: a regime once vulnerable to external threats has secured itself against invasion through nuclear deterrence. Iran’s leadership has likely internalized this lesson.
With the global spotlight distracted by the unfolding political transitions in Washington, Tehran has a narrow window of opportunity to accelerate its nuclear ambitions. A nuclear Iran would not only secure its regime’s survival but also restore its deterrent power, even as its Axis of Resistance falters.
The collapse of the Assad regime marks a pivotal moment in the Middle East, but most of all a moment of reckoning for Iran’s defense posture. Facing the disintegration of its regional axis, Iran may be more likely to pivot toward nuclearization as its ultimate guarantor of power.
For those who truly seek to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, the window to act may be mere weeks, for once the nuclear threshold is crossed, there is no turning back.
Source » thehill