On Sunday, December 8, 2024, Syrian opposition forces entered Damascus, the capital of Syria, marking a historic turning point in the country’s prolonged conflict. Following their swift and decisive victories in cities such as Homs, Deir ez-Zor, and Dara’a, the opposition faced little resistance from government forces in the capital. The regime of Bashar al-Assad, which had ruled Syria for over two decades, came to an abrupt end as the president fled the country. This event also marked the conclusion of 53 years of rule by the Assad family’s Alawite dynasty.
Assad’s Flight and the Fall of Damascus
Reports suggest that Bashar al-Assad left Syria for an undisclosed location prior to the opposition’s arrival in Damascus. His departure signifies the collapse of a regime that had survived years of civil war and international scrutiny. Assad, who succeeded his father, Hafez al-Assad, as Syria’s president in 2000, was initially perceived as a reformist. However, this image quickly dissolved as his government continued policies of repression, including the imprisonment of political activists and intellectuals associated with the Damascus Spring movement.
A Legacy of War and Repression
During the 14-year Syrian Civil War, Bashar al-Assad faced allegations of war crimes and brutal repression. The conflict, which began in 2011 during the Arab Spring, claimed over 500,000 lives and displaced half of Syria’s population. Despite widespread protests and opposition demands for his removal, Assad retained power with military support from Iran and Russia, regaining control of significant territories during the war.
Elections held under Assad’s rule were widely criticized by Western governments as neither free nor fair. His unchallenged victories in these elections did little to mitigate accusations of authoritarianism and electoral manipulation.
The Final Offensive and the Role of Opposition Forces
The beginning of Assad’s downfall can be traced to a large-scale rebel offensive in late November 2024. Just days after a ceasefire was brokered between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, opposition forces launched a coordinated attack that recaptured strategic cities like Aleppo and Hama for the first time since 2011. The assault, led by the Tahrir al-Sham coalition under Ahmad al-Shar’a (Abu Mohammad al-Julani), resulted in the rapid capture of 80% of Syrian territory, culminating in the takeover of Damascus with minimal resistance.
Iran’s Support and Strategic Alliance with Assad
The Assad regime’s close relationship with Iran was a cornerstone of its survival strategy. This alliance, dating back to the rule of Hafez al-Assad, solidified during the Iran-Iraq War when Syria supported Iran against Saddam Hussein. Under Bashar al-Assad, this partnership deepened, particularly during the Syrian Civil War, when Iran provided military, financial, and logistical support to maintain Assad’s grip on power.
Iran’s involvement included deploying the Quds Force, a branch of the Revolutionary Guards, alongside organized militias such as Hezbollah and the Fatemiyoun Brigade. Iran’s justification for its intervention—protecting Shiite holy sites—was widely regarded as a pretext for ensuring Assad’s survival and preserving its strategic foothold in Syria.
Iran’s support for Assad also facilitated the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, a key component of Tehran’s “axis of resistance” strategy against Israel and the United States. The fall of Assad, however, poses a significant challenge to Iran’s influence in the region.
Costs of Supporting Assad
Iran’s support for Assad came at a high cost. Official estimates indicate that at least 2,100 Iranian military personnel were killed in Syria, including high-ranking commanders like Hossein Hamedani. Financially, the regime reportedly spent over $30 billion in Syria, according to former Iranian lawmakers, a debt unlikely to be repaid following Assad’s ouster.
Regional Implications of Assad’s Fall
The collapse of the Assad regime represents a critical setback for Iran’s regional strategy. Losing a key ally in Syria undermines Tehran’s influence in the Middle East and its ability to maintain a corridor for supplying arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This shift will likely force Iran to reassess its regional policies and explore alternative strategies to maintain its presence and alliances in the region.
The end of Assad’s rule signals not only a transformative moment for Syria but also a significant recalibration of power dynamics in the Middle East. As the opposition consolidates its victory, regional and international stakeholders will closely watch the unfolding political landscape and its implications for the future of the region.
Source » irannewsupdate