After 50 years of rule, the Assad family has fallen in Syria. President Bashar Assad’s location is unknown; reports indicate he has fled the nation, but his destination is unclear. In a matter of days, the 13-year civil war came to an abrupt conclusion with cities across the nation falling into rebel control.
This swift campaign holds significant implications for not only Syria but geopolitical relations on a global scale. How Syria and the world reacts to the fall of Assad could dictate the next decade of international conflict.
The immediate question is – what does this mean for Russia and Iran’s abilities to pursue foreign assets? I previously believed the duo would swoop in to save Assad as they had before, but this time they did very little to save him. While Israel reportedly prevented Iranian aid and troops from reaching Damascus, it is unlikely it was enough to prevent the siege of the capital. Will Western powers move to capitalize on a sense that Iran and Russia are spread too thin?
Iran and Russia spent decades propping up proxy powers across the region, including Assad in Syria. Historically, Iran would deploy Hezbollah from Lebanon to assist the Assad regime, but they were largely dismantled fighting Israel.
Iran also relies on Syria to get arms to Hezbollah. The collapse of Syria cuts Iran off from Hezbollah, unless they travel through northern paths that require passing US military installations or Israeli surveilled zones. Iran is not positioned to take Israel on directly, which is clear based on their inability to reach Syria. Israel should capitalize on this.
Israel can seize the moment by reinforcing the Golan Heights and ensuring all northern passages to Lebanon are severed. Israel must also make clear to the rebel factions controlling the northern border that challenging Israel comes with grave peril. Strategic aerial strikes and military operations can prevent Iran from rearming Hezbollah.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the main rebel group in Syria, is an Islamic fundamentalist terror cell, and Israel should be concerned with them holding territory along the border. Israel intervened already to defend UN peacekeepers from HTS forces when they came under fire.
Regarding Russia
Regarding Russia, it is known that the war in Ukraine has drained its resources. Some estimates suggest Russia has lost over 600,000 men in Ukraine and countless amounts of treasure. If Russia cannot defend its operations in the Middle East, its investments in Libya and across central Africa could become targets. Russia has been playing a role in the Libyan civil war for years now, positioning itself to control oil infrastructure across the eastern half of the nation.
In Sudan, Russia has military personnel protecting gold mines and operating training facilities. Ukraine has attacked Russia’s assets in Sudan before and might be emboldened to strike again after its inability to defend Assad.
The argument that Russia being spread thin allowed for the collapse of Syria will be a boost to all who advocate for funding the Ukrainian defense effort. Funding Ukraine against Russia is undeniably better than the US directly combating it, but this shows quantitative results for the investment outside Ukrainian territory. It is in the US’s interest for Russian allies to fail globally from a strategic standpoint. If we can cut Iran off from its proxies in the process, that is an incredible bonus.
The future of Syria is at a foundational moment. What comes next can always be worse. The international community cannot allow Syria to fall into control of Islamic fundamentalists. The easiest way to counter this is to demand Turkey cease its support of the HTS and potentially support the Kurdish forces in the north who have been allies to Israel and the US for decades. Kurdish communities lost tens of thousands fighting ISIS on behalf of Western coalitions; we can support them against attacks from Turkey and remnants of the Assad regime.
I admit I thought Assad’s regime would last longer than a couple of days once the war kicked off again. But what this shows is that Russia and Iran are not positioned to protect one of their longest-standing allies.
Israel and the US can send a message to all who stand under the Iranian-Russian umbrella: They are not your friends and will not save you if you challenge our countries. If done properly, we can reshape global dynamics for decades, but we must be methodical and precise to capitalize on an overexposed enemy.
Source » jpost