Syria, long regarded as the strategic cornerstone of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” against Israel, is experiencing a potentially transformative period.
The Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has historically been instrumental in propping up Bashar al-Assad’s regime, now faces an unprecedented challenge from anti-Assad fighters across the country.
Last week, anti-Assad fighters from Idlib province launched a rapid offensive, seizing several parts of Syria.
Syrian and Russian airstrikes have intensified in northern Syria as Iran’s foreign minister visited Damascus to show support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime following an Islamist insurgent advance that took control of parts of Aleppo.
As the regime faces its most significant challenge in years, state media broadcasted images of airstrikes on opposition-controlled areas, claiming they targeted enemy command centers and strategic positions.
The Syrian military reported strikes near a stadium in Aleppo as part of a joint operation with Russia.
Earlier, an airstrike near a hospital in central Aleppo killed 12 people. Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city and once an industrial hub, has seen some of the most intense battles of the civil war.
The first wave of clashes began on the morning of November 27 from positions in the western parts of Aleppo province.
Multiple groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), entered the battlefield, aiming to capture Aleppo. Within two days, they had seized control of 56 villages and strategic positions.
IRGC forces and Russian troops stationed in the area, overwhelmed by the intensity of the attacks, were forced to retreat.
Who Are the Key Players in the Conflict, and What Are Their Objectives?
The recent developments in Syria unfolded after Lebanon and Israel reached a ceasefire agreement. On the same day the ceasefire in Lebanon took effect, reports emerged of clashes in Idlib province. Opposition forces have since taken control of large portions of Aleppo city and eastern Idlib province.
However, a statement from the Syrian army claims the rebels failed to establish permanent positions in Aleppo, and the army continues to bombard their locations.
A key group involved in the conflict is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as al-Nusra Front, which was once affiliated with al-Qaeda. While HTS officially severed ties with al-Qaeda in 2017, it maintains a Salafi-jihadist ideology.
Alongside groups like Ansar al-Islam, Jaish al-Ahrar, and Jaish al-Nasr (some of which are backed by Turkey), HTS has formed a joint operations room called Fatah al-Mubin.
Led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, HTS is focused on domestic Syrian issues. Its objectives include overthrowing Bashar al-Assad’s regime, expelling Iranian forces, and establishing an Islamic government. HTS plans to remove Iranian forces and militias, counter ISIS, and consolidate control over northern Syria to protect its territorial gains.
On the first day of the offensive, the opposition’s military spokesperson issued a statement accusing the Syrian government of paralyzing life in western Aleppo suburbs through drone, artillery, and missile attacks, prompting the opposition’s military response.
On November 29, the Syrian army labeled the rebels as terrorist groups linked to al-Nusra Front, accusing them of using heavy weaponry, suicide drones, and foreign fighters.
The opposition now claims that after capturing Aleppo, their goal is to form a government aligned with the aspirations of the Syrian people.
In a statement, they said that the Syrian revolution was not started against any foreign country but aimed at ending tyranny. They also urged Russia to disassociate its interests from Assad’s regime and to cooperate in shaping Syria’s future.
Why Did the Offensive Begin in Idlib?
The offensive by HTS into Aleppo province and its capture of key areas stems from the concentration of opposition forces in Idlib province.
After the Syrian civil war subsided, Idlib, neighboring Turkey, became the primary stronghold of anti-Assad forces starting in 2015. The presence of opposition forces in Idlib resulted from agreements made among Turkey, Russia, and Iran during the Astana Talks in 2017.
These agreements established four de-escalation zones outside government-controlled areas. Over time, three zones fell under Syrian government control, leaving Idlib as the last bastion of armed opposition.
In 2019, Turkey and Russia signed the Sochi Agreement to preserve Syria’s territorial integrity, push Kurdish YPG forces away from Turkey’s borders, and create a de-escalation zone in Idlib. The agreement also included the establishment of Turkish observation posts and the removal of extremist groups. However, advances by Syrian forces and non-compliance from some groups escalated tensions.
In 2020, Turkey and Russia reached another agreement to stabilize the area. Despite this, Turkey has repeatedly threatened military operations against opposition groups in Idlib to secure its borders.
What Led to the Resumption of War in Syria?
Before the recent offensive, tensions had been mounting between Bashar al-Assad’s opponents and the Syrian army, even as negotiations were ongoing. The recent 22nd Astana meeting, with representatives from Turkey, Russia, Iran, the Syrian government, and opposition forces in attendance, emphasized Syria’s territorial integrity, combating terrorism, and finding a political solution in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2254.
However, tensions between the Syrian army and opposition groups in areas bordering Turkey persisted. Between November 17 and 24, clashes resulted in the deaths of four civilians and 19 military personnel, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
At the same time, the Syrian army intensified its attacks on opposition-held areas, accompanied by extensive Russian airstrikes. This escalation brought Syrian government warplanes back to Idlib’s skies for the first time in four years, with the region once again bombed. Reports indicate that Syrian and Russian warplanes, along with artillery, have continuously targeted central Idlib, the western outskirts of Aleppo, and the city of Darat Izza.
Regional and international factors also contributed to these tensions, including the weakening of Iran’s Quds Force in Syria, reduced coordination between Hezbollah and the Quds Force, Assad’s government’s declining performance, Turkey’s efforts to reduce border tensions, and Russia’s focus on the Ukraine crisis. These factors have created a broader operational space for Assad’s opposition groups.
Nevertheless, the variety of equipment and weaponry used by the opposition suggests that their current capabilities were built over a long period, with the timing and execution of these events likely the result of careful planning and preparations that began long ago.
Is Turkey to Blame?
Some view Turkey as a supporter of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Current and former officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran have pointed fingers at Turkey. In separate social media posts, Ali Motahari and Seyyed Nezamuddin Mousavi, former members of Iran’s parliament, accused Turkey of playing a role in the conflict.
Motahari claimed that an attack by Turkish-backed forces on the Syrian army in Aleppo province, shortly after a ceasefire in Lebanon, indicated cooperation between Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to disrupt Hezbollah’s supply lines via Aleppo.
Media outlets close to the Islamic Republic have also shared videos suggesting that the personal belongings of anti-Assad fighters included Turkish lira. However, Turkish officials have not acknowledged involvement in these clashes.
Instead, Turkish leaders have consistently emphasized their fight against terrorism.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister has denied any role in the conflict, reiterating the country’s commitment to Syria’s territorial integrity and blaming the United States for supporting terrorist groups.
What Was the Quds Force’s Mission in Syria?
Iran’s support for Bashar al-Assad’s government – both militarily and in regional politics – has been crucial in shaping Syria’s conflict dynamics.
Qasem Soleimani, the late commander of the Quds Force, said in a speech the primary reason for attacks on Syria was its support for the “Resistance Axis” and its close ties with Iran.
Similarly, Mahmoud Chaharbaghi, then-commander of the Quds Force’s artillery, declared that the Quds Force’s mission in Syria, as directed by Iran’s Supreme Leader, was to preserve Assad’s government.
Aleppo, a key area in the conflict, was a major hub for Iran’s military presence in Syria. Early in the conflict, Iranian and Syrian forces conducted operations to prevent advances by Assad’s opposition forces.
At the same time, Russia launched heavy artillery and airstrikes against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies.
Quds Force advisors actively participated in the fighting and suffered significant losses. Among them was Brigadier General Kiomars Pourhashemi, a senior IRGC commander, who was killed near Aleppo.
In a statement, the IRGC claimed, “terrorists, guided by the Zionist regime and its allies, launched new attacks on Syria, which were met with decisive responses from the Syrian army and local forces.”
Meanwhile, Ismail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, described the developments as part of a “sinister plot by the Zionist regime and the U.S. to destabilize West Asia.”
Mojtaba Amani, Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, said that “terrorist groups miscalculated by perceiving the Resistance Front and Hezbollah as weakened following recent regional developments and attempted to test their luck in Syria again.”
These statements highlight the Islamic Republic’s commitment to supporting Syria and the Resistance Front against opposition groups.
Source » dialogo-americas