Iran has once again claimed it will soon receive its single largest procurement of military hardware from Russia in over 30 years. Completing the sale in a timely manner could become a win-win for both Moscow and Tehran or, at the very least, save some face in the two troubled capitals.
Arrangements for Iran’s acquisition of Su-35 multirole fighters, Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters, and Yak-130 jet trainers for its regular armed forces have been finalized, Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Brigadier General Mahdi Farahi told Iran’s Tasnim News Agency on Tuesday.
Since at least 2021, recurring reports indicated Iran would acquire approximately two dozen Su-35s Russia had previously built to fulfill an order from Egypt, reportedly canceled by Cairo under U.S. pressure. Since Russia launched its fateful invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow forged an unprecedented defense partnership with Tehran.
Unlike in the past, the weaponry primarily flowed from Tehran to Moscow, with Iran supplying thousands of loitering munitions – single-use explosive drones, colloquially referred to as “suicide” or “kamikaze” drones – for use against Ukraine. Just this month, Russia launched its largest drone assault on Kyiv to date, using 75 Iranian-built Shahed loitering munitions.
While Russia reportedly delivered Iran millions of dollars in cash and purportedly captured Western weaponry Tehran could reverse-engineer, such as Javelin anti-tank missile, there was no sign of the fighters.
The White House announced in late 2022 that Russia could begin delivery within a year. An Iranian official even told Tasnim that the first aircraft could arrive as early as March 2023, in time for the festive Iranian New Year.
Over the summer, a report by a Tehran-based journalist citing Iranian officials who claimed Tehran had ordered and paid for 50 Su-35s before the Ukraine war but didn’t receive any aircraft.
Nevertheless, there were some signs Russia was taking small steps to fulfill its end of the deal in early September when it delivered two jets. They weren’t the long-anticipated Su-35s, but the first Yak-130s Tehran had ordered. The delivery suggested the Su-35s could eventually follow.
Farahi’s latest statement is interesting since it clarifies the helicopter Iran has ultimately chosen is the Mi-28, as predicted in this space back in January. The Mi-28 is probably preferable to the Ka-52, which suffered significant losses in Ukraine. Egypt was also reportedly dissatisfied with the 46 Ka-52s it ordered in recent years.
Farahi’s statement didn’t clarify whether Iran would also receive any new air defenses. Recurring reports also indicated Tehran would receive S-400s, a more advanced long-range air defense missile system than the S-300PMU-2s it received from Moscow in 2016 as part of a delayed contract initially signed in 2007.
However, citing unidentified U.S. officials, The Wall Street Journal reported in early November that the U.S. has intelligence indicating Russia’s Wagner mercenary group planned to provide Iran’s main regional proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon, with a medium-range Russian-built Pantsir-S1 air defense system. A Washington Institute analysis noted that the alleged transfer could politically mark “the latest convergence of Russia-Iran policy on Israel and the United States.”
If confirmed, the arrangement would not be wholly unprecedented. There was widespread speculation in 2015 that Iran would seize an opportunity to buy 300 T-90 main battle tanks from Russia for its regular army. Instead, the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps paramilitary acquired a mere 24 and transferred them to two armed groups in Syria loyal to its ally, President Bashar al-Assad.
If Farahi’s claim is soon confirmed, the delivery could benefit the political elites in Tehran and Moscow.
For Tehran, the arrival of sleek, shiny new Su-35s will dispel rising suspicions that Iran was giving Russia more than it was getting in return and also provide its regular armed forces with a much-needed equipment upgrade. For Moscow, the sale of these high-end weaponry will prove it can still secure new arms export contracts despite the numerous supply chain problems it has faced since invading Ukraine.
On the other hand, if the contract faces another long or indefinite delay, it will again highlight deficiencies in the unprecedented Russia-Iran military-technical alliance and lead even more Iranians to conclude it’s a nonreciprocal or even exploitative relationship.
Source » forbes