Iran’s regime has effectively extended its influence across the Middle East through ideological, military, and social infiltration. This strategy involves leveraging fractured societies and existing grievances, allowing Tehran to establish footholds that threaten regional stability.
Recent analyses shed light on how Iran exploits Sunni groups, like the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), while also working through its traditional proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas. Additionally, Iran’s methods are extending beyond its traditional Shia alliances, entering regions like Jordan, where societal divisions provide an opening for its expansionist agenda.
Iran and Palestinian Islamic Jihad: Bridging Sunni-Shia Divides
Iran’s ability to build alliances with Sunni organizations like PIJ highlights its pragmatic approach. Although PIJ is a Sunni group, it aligns ideologically with Iran in seeking the establishment of an Islamic state governed by Sharia law, emulating Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. This alignment facilitates a cooperative relationship, allowing PIJ to pledge loyalty to Iran’s Supreme Leader despite doctrinal differences.
Iran positions itself as a unifying force for resistance against Israel, overshadowing sectarian divides. By framing its influence as resistance to oppression and foreign interference, Iran has won the support of groups traditionally outside its ideological orbit. This dynamic helps explain why PIJ, unlike Hamas, has developed a relationship with Iran akin to Hezbollah’s dependency.
The Jordanian Front: A Critical Prize
Jordan’s strategic location and demographic makeup make it a prime target for Iranian influence. Over 65% of Jordan’s population is of Palestinian descent, many of whom harbor grievances related to Israel and its policies. Iran has sought to exploit these sentiments by positioning itself as a defender of Palestinian rights, thereby shifting public opinion in its favor.
Historically, Jordan resisted Iran’s overtures. Offers like building infrastructure in exchange for allowing Iranian pilgrims access to religious sites were repeatedly rejected due to fears of sectarian and political infiltration. However, recent shifts in public sentiment, driven by Iran’s effective use of the Palestinian cause, indicate a growing acceptance of its role as a regional power.
Challenges in Countering Iran’s Influence
Jordan’s monarchy and state apparatus remain robust, distinguishing it from weaker states like Lebanon. However, Iran’s strategy focuses on long-term societal infiltration rather than immediate upheaval. The regime exploits alliances with Jordanian Islamist groups like the Islamic Action Front (IAF), which has connections to Hamas and, by extension, to Iran. With 31 parliamentary seats, the IAF represents a significant political force advocating for policies aligning with Iranian interests, such as annulling Jordan’s peace treaty with Israel.
Moreover, alliances between Jordan’s leftists and Islamists, particularly after major regional conflicts, create a broad base of anti-Western, anti-Israel sentiment. These alignments, while ideologically inconsistent, serve Iran’s goal of destabilizing governments by amplifying divisions.
The Broader Implications of Iranian Expansion
Iran’s model for influence relies on identifying and deepening societal fractures. Whether through fostering sectarian divides, as in Iraq and Syria, or supporting anti-Israel resistance movements, as in Gaza and Lebanon, Iran systematically works to undermine state sovereignty. Its success in Jordan could represent a tipping point in the region, threatening not only Jordanian stability but also the broader regional balance.
In particular, Iran’s focus on eroding the legitimacy of Jordan’s monarchy represents a direct challenge. By amplifying public dissatisfaction and aligning itself with populist calls for action against Israel, Tehran seeks to weaken one of the region’s most stable governments. This strategy is not just about Jordan; it’s about undermining the Western-aligned order in the Middle East.
Conclusion
The Iranian regime’s ability to navigate sectarian divides and exploit local grievances has made it a formidable force in regional geopolitics. From its deep ties with PIJ and Hamas to its strategic infiltration of Jordanian society, Iran’s tactics reveal a calculated approach to expanding influence. For Jordan, vigilance and decisive action will be critical to countering these threats. For the region, Iran’s maneuvers highlight the urgency of addressing the socio-political conditions that allow such infiltration to thrive.
Source » iranfocus