Amid the challenges facing the Trump administration in the Middle East, none is more ominous than Iranian aggression.
Once a friend of the United States in the 1960s and ‘70s, the Iranian revolution of 1979 changed everything. Iranians deposed the ruling shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and handed control to the Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini, a religious zealot.
Overnight Iran transitioned from American ally to indefatigable foe, frequently referring to the United States as “The Great Satan.” Since then, Iran’s behavior in the Middle East has been one of political disruption for the West, including its role as a state sponsor of terror, a nuclear and missile proliferator, and now a regional military threat not only to Israel, but to Saudi Arabia and neighboring Gulf states.
Iran is pestilential and, given its current posture in the Middle East, the prospects of armed conflict with the United States and others is increasingly likely.
Iran in many ways has become a regional hegemonic military threat. It has anchored itself in Lebanon with support for the Shi’a Islamist political party and militant group, Hezbollah. In Syria, Iranian forces are actively supporting the government of Bashar Assad, that nation’s dictatorial leader and an Alawite, a Shi’a-friendly Muslim sect.
Iran’s activities in both Lebanon and Syria are a direct threat to Israel. Further south on the Arabian Peninsula, Iran supports Shi’a Houthi rebels in their effort to seize control in Yemen, provoking Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia to oppose the rebellion in what amounts to a proxy war with the Iranians.
The establishment of these militant Iranian anchor points throughout the region makes clear Iran’s intent to position itself not only to threaten Israel, but to bring Saudi Arabia to heel as a regional power, thereby displacing Saudi influence vis-a-vis neighboring Arab states. Both goals imperil U.S. vital interest in the region and must be addressed promptly.
President Trump understands the challenge. His support for Israel is unquestioned, made poignant by his decision to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. His first official visit to the Middle East after his election was to Saudi Arabia, a step signaling his desire for a productive relationship with the kingdom. Indeed, shortly thereafter the youthful and pragmatic Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud declared Israel’s right to exist while criticizing Palestinians for obstructing peace negotiations.
From his first days in office, the president has made clear that he understands Iran is the most prominent threat to regional peace. He is ratcheting up the pressure, even at this moment. Having renounced the dangerously naive Obama nuclear agreement with Iran, the president has jettisoned appeasement with the terror mullahs.
Moreover, he has set in motion the imposition of a full suite of sanctions against the Iranian government poised to begin in November. Already under tremendous economic pressure — their economy is in tatters — the mullahs face a very disgruntled populace in Iran. If given a push, Iranians might initiate a second revolution in 39 years and reject the Islamo-tyranny that has overtaken the nation, making life there miserable for millions, particularly the middle class.
It was in fact the Bazaaris, the merchant class and workers in the traditional marketplaces of Iran, who allied with the mullahs to overthrow the shah. Now they are worn thin with a failing economy and the Iranian leadership’s preference to expend huge sums of money on missiles, nuclear pursuits, terror and proxy wars. The mullahs have sown the seeds of their own demise and President Trump should do his level best to reap the harvest.
To that extent, the president’s current approach is sound. Sanctions will be effective. Moreover, the European Union — Iranian commercial interests notwithstanding — is reluctant to violate them. Iran knows this too, admitting recently that European support for the nuclear agreement will not end U.S. sanctions.
They know that the vise is closing on them and the mullahs may eventually lash out militarily in the hope of creating an international crisis to compel the United States to ease up. That’s why they recently caused a kerfuffle by threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz, disrupting the movement of oil from the Arabian Gulf.
If the Iranians attempt to obstruct oil commerce, the United States should — and the president likely will — launch focused and precise military action to eliminate any Iranian blockade. It must be demonstrative. But more importantly, once November’s sanctions are in place, the United States should fully support an indigenous regime change — not with U.S. soldiers — but by helping those who overthrew the previous Iranian government.
It might come to be known as the Bazaari Revolution, one that is well overdue and necessary to upend Iran’s hegemony in the Middle East. Now is the time to encourage and facilitate it. Who knows? A friendship might emerge with Iranian merchants seeking peaceful commerce, not war.
Source » washingtontimes