The story: Comments by Iran’s supreme leader on the nature of war have renewed focus on pledges that Israel will pay for the assassination of a Palestinian leader in Tehran. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s intervention notably follows Hezbollah’s launch of a drone and rocket attack on Israel in retaliation for Tel Aviv’s killing of the Lebanese group’s top military commander. Meanwhile, insisting that Iran does “not seek” escalation, Iran’s new chief diplomat has warned of a “definitive” reaction against Israel that will be “measured” and “well calculated.”
The coverage: Khamenei addressed how wars have been waged “in different forms” throughout history before a group of students in Tehran on Aug. 25.
Marking Arbaeen—a major event in the Shiite religious calendar—the top decision maker said battles were fought “in one form in the era of swords and spears” and “another in the atomic age and era of artificial intelligence and so on.” He added, “And now, in the era of quantum physics, the Internet, and the like, it is carried out in another way.”
Referencing wars in early Islamic history, Khamenei said the battle of good versus evil is ongoing and “does not always mean taking up arms; rather, it means thinking correctly, speaking properly, understanding things accurately, and striking the target with precision.”
The supreme leader’s comments came hours after Hezbollah and Israel traded heavy fire, with the Lebanese movement saying it had launched “phase one” of its retaliation for the July 30 assassination of top commander Fuad Shukr.
Hezbollah said it had launched more than 300 rockets and drones against military targets in northern and central Israel.
Ahead of Hezbollah’s rocket and drone barrage, Israel conducted what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as preemptive strikes against rocket launchers inside Lebanon. Netanyahu said the firing of “thousands” of rockets had been thwarted.
Notably, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff CQ Brown Jr arrived in Israel hours after the exchange of fire.
In a speech on Aug. 25, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah asserted that the Lebanese movement had delayed its retaliation to determine whether the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’ would launch a coordinated operation or separate attacks against Israel.
Nasrallah added that another reason for delaying a retaliatory strike was to give negotiations to reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza “a chance,” because Hezbollah’s “goal is to stop the aggression on Gaza.”
The Hezbollah chief insisted that the Aug. 25 attack was calibrated to strike military targets, even though “we have the right to strike civilians or infrastructure.”
The region has been anticipating Iran’s pledged retaliation against Israel over the July 31 assassination in Tehran of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh. Tel Aviv has not commented on the killing.
When asked about when the promised retaliation will take place, Hossein Salami—the chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—declared on Aug. 24 that Iranians would “hear good news.”
The following day, on Aug. 25, new Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi charged that Iran’s “reaction to [the] Israeli terrorist attack in Tehran is definitive, and will be measured & well calculated.” He added, “We do not fear escalation, yet do not seek it—unlike Israel.”
Mahdi Mohammadi, a strategic advisor to conservative Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, on Aug. 25 said Hezbollah’s attack highlighted “the start of a new class of operations” by the ‘Axis of Resistance’.
Mohammadi argued that the new type of mission “combines intelligence and military operations and uses military tools for special intelligence operations—or vice versa.”
Elaborating on his argument, the security analyst concluded, “This means there is no reason to use the tools in the same way that the enemy expects.”
The context/analysis: Israel launched a war on Gaza after Hamas led an attack on Israeli border communities in Oct. 2023, killing nearly 1,200 people—including civilians. The group took more than 250 hostages back to Gaza, and just over 100 remain in the enclave.
Gaza-based authorities say more than 40,000 Palestinians, including thousands of women and children, have been killed in Israeli attacks.
Hezbollah has been launching rockets at northern Israel in support of Hamas from the early days of the war in Gaza. The Lebanese movement and Israel have since inched closer to a full-blown confrontation.
There have been questions about how precisely Haniyeh was killed in Tehran on July 31. Staying at a complex protected by the IRGC, the Hamas political leader was assassinated only hours after attending the inauguration of new President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Several US-based outlets have alleged that Israeli operatives weeks in advance planted a bomb in Haniyeh’s suite and remotely detonated the explosives.
Iran has rejected the claims in US media, insisting that the Hamas leader was killed by a “short-range projectile” equipped with a warhead.
The way Haniyeh was killed can be assumed to play a key part in how Iran may determine the modality of its response.
The projectile claim would likely require Iran to launch a military operation, whereas the bomb theory would favor an intelligence operation. In this context, Qalibaf advisor Mohammadi’s comments about the combination of “intelligence and military operations” by the ‘Axis of Resistance’ are notable.
Another factor apparently contributing to Iran’s delayed response is the ongoing negotiations to end the war in Gaza and secure the release of Israeli hostages taken by Hamas. Iran has asserted that it does not want its actions to impact the talks.
Of note, Hezbollah has charged that its operation to avenge Shukr was impacted by “political considerations.” Mindful of this assertion, Hezbollah’s retaliatory attack against Israel could add more pressure on Iran to take action.
The future: Iran is finding itself in a peculiar position after vowing to strike Israel over Haniyeh’s killing.
If it chooses the military route, it needs to calibrate its attack so that it is strong enough to establish deterrence against Israel—but not so severe as to draw an escalatory response from Tel Aviv and risk all-out war.
Yet, whatever Tehran’s response may be, neither Iran nor Israel are likely to establish deterrence that will ward off future attacks on each other’s interests and soil.
Given the political complexities of a direct attack on Israel, coupled with the risk of becoming entangled in a confrontation with US forces, Khamenei may consider different means of targeting Israeli entities deemed responsible for Haniyeh’s killing. This may entail kinetic and/or non-kinetic action against Israeli intelligence and cyber facilities.
Source » amwaj.media