Masoud Pezeshkian takes office as Iran’s next president on Tuesday. His election follows the untimely death of President Ebrahim Raisi in May, which necessitated a snap presidential election. Describing himself as a “reformist-principlist,” Pezeshkian is viewed as a figure of both continuity and potential change.
Though Pezeshkian remains loyal to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the revolutionary principles established in 1979, yet, he has shown a willingness to critique certain aspects of the regime, particularly its enforcement of the hijab dress code against women.
With Iran’s economy in dire straits, largely due to international sanctions, Pezeshkian has expressed a desire to negotiate with the United States to lift these sanctions and possibly return to the 2015 nuclear deal. Pezeshkian’s elevation as the country’s president has triggered a wave of anticipation about positive changes in Iran’s domestic policies and diplomacy.
Election as president is not enough
Masoud Pezeshkian’s path to presidency was marked by a contentious and closely watched election. The Guardian Council, responsible for vetting presidential candidates, approved five conservatives and Pezeshkian, who received backing from several reformist factions.
The initial round in June saw the lowest voter turnout since the 1979 revolution, with only 40% of eligible voters participating, reflecting widespread discontent and apathy towards the political system. The runoff in July between Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili, a staunch conservative critical of the 2015 nuclear deal, saw a modest increase in turnout to 50%, with Pezeshkian securing 53% of the votes.
This victory, however, does not come with an easy mandate. Pezeshkian will be working with a parliament dominated by conservative and hardline factions, following an equally low-turnout parliamentary election in March 2024. This dynamic sets the stage for potential conflicts and challenges in pushing through any substantial reforms.
Domestic challenges have been mounting
At home, Pezeshkian faces an array of daunting challenges. The Iranian economy is crippled by international sanctions, high inflation, and unemployment. Despite his reformist stance, Pezeshkian has been careful not to make sweeping promises during his campaign.
He has, however, acknowledged the legitimacy gap and widespread public discontent. His criticisms of the government’s strict enforcement of the hijab and internet censorship signal a potential shift towards more moderate cultural policies. His statements sympathising with women protesters following the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who died in police custody for improper hijab, underscored his sensitivity to women’s rights issues.
Pezeshkian’s administration will need to navigate a complex political landscape to enact meaningful changes. His emphasis on transparency, fighting corruption, and bringing back experienced technocrats reflects a pragmatic approach to governance. However, his ability to implement these changes will depend heavily on his political acumen and ability to negotiate with the entrenched hardliners.
A foreign policy test: Relations with the West
Foreign policy in Iran is heavily influenced by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority over the country’s direction. However, as president, Pezeshkian can influence the debate and potentially set the agenda through his role in the Supreme National Security Council.
Pezeshkian has expressed a desire to improve relations with the West and revive the 2015 nuclear deal, which could be pivotal in lifting economic sanctions and attracting foreign investment.
Despite the hardline stance of his predecessor, Pezeshkian’s campaign included a strong emphasis on diplomacy and engagement with the international community. His recruitment of Mohammad Javad Zarif, the architect of the original nuclear deal, suggests a serious intent to pursue this path. However, any substantial shift will require the approval of the Supreme Leader, who has shown both scepticism and pragmatism towards engaging with the West.
Pezeshkian’s foreign policy manifesto advocated for a balanced approach, “not anti-West, nor anti-East”. He had criticised former President Raisi’s eastward leanings and insisted that resolving the economic crisis requires negotiations with the West. This stance, however, faces resistance from Khamenei, who remains sceptical of US intentions, citing the US’s withdrawal from the JCPOA as evidence of unreliability.
Relations with Russia and China
Under former President Raisi, Iran strengthened its ties with Russia and China, viewing these relationships as counterweights to Western sanctions. China, in particular, has become a significant purchaser of Iranian oil, while Iran has provided drones to Russia for its conflict in Ukraine, resulting in additional sanctions from the US, EU, and UK.
Pezeshkian values these relationships but also recognises their limitations. Analysts suggest that while a complete pivot away from Russia and China is unlikely in the short term, there is potential for a more balanced foreign policy that includes engagement with the West.
Iran’s role in regional dynamics
Iran’s involvement in regional conflicts and its support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas have long been contentious issues. Pezeshkian has praised the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and maintained a hardline stance against Israel. However, he has also shown interest in improving relations with neighbouring Arab Gulf states.
The restoration of diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia in 2023 was a significant step, but relations remain fraught with tension. Pezeshkian’s presidency could see efforts to stabilise and improve these relationships, though significant hurdles remain.
However, a major departure from Iran’s support to groups like Hezbollah and Hamas is unlikely. Just before his inauguration ceremony on Tuesday, Pezeshkian met with leaders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Lebanon’s Hezbollah in Tehran.
Pezeshkian sat down with Islamic Jihad chief Ziad al-Nakhala and Hezbollah’s deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem. Earlier, on Monday, Pezeshkian had warned Israel of serious consequences if it attacked Lebanon amid its ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza.
What about Iran’s nuclear programme
Iran’s nuclear programme remains a critical issue in its relations with the international community. Since the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, Iran has significantly breached the terms of the agreement, enriching uranium well beyond the limits set by the deal.
While Iran maintains it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons, the potential for rapid advancement towards a weapons-grade capability remains a concern for global powers.
Pezeshkian has voiced support for returning to the JCPOA and lifting sanctions, recognising the economic benefits such a move could bring. However, any progress in nuclear negotiations will depend on broader geopolitical dynamics and the willingness of both Iran and the US to compromise.
The economic crisis, Iran’s lingering problem
Addressing Iran’s economic crisis is perhaps Pezeshkian’s most pressing challenge. High inflation, unemployment, and widespread corruption have eroded public trust in the government. Pezeshkian has promised to tackle these issues through transparency and better management.
He has emphasised the need to comply with international standards on money laundering and financial transparency to attract foreign investment. However, without relief from US sanctions, substantial economic recovery remains elusive.
The path forward for Iran
Pezeshkian’s presidency offers a potential for cautious optimism. His pragmatic approach and willingness to engage with both domestic critics and international partners suggest he could steer Iran towards a more balanced and prosperous future. However, the entrenched power structures and deep-seated political and economic challenges mean that progress will be slow and fraught with obstacles.
Pezeshkian’s presidency marks a critical juncture for Iran. As he prepares to take office, the world will be watching closely to see how he navigates the complex landscape of Iranian politics, economic woes, and international relations. His success will depend on his ability to bridge the gap between reformist aspirations and conservative realities, and to find common ground with both Iran’s domestic power brokers and international adversaries.
There’s also chatter about Supreme Leader’s succession
The Supreme Leader’s influence on both domestic and foreign policy cannot be overstated. At 85, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s potential succession could significantly impact Iran’s future direction. Pezeshkian may have to navigate this transition, which could be highly contested. The Supreme Leader’s stance on key issues like the nuclear programme and relations with the West will ultimately shape the scope of Pezeshkian’s presidency.
While significant challenges lie ahead, particularly in dealing with a conservative parliament and navigating international sanctions, Pezeshkian’s presidency could foster incremental progress.
The global community is watching closely as Iran’s new president settles into office, hopeful yet cautious about what his leadership will bring. The interplay between his reformist aspirations and the entrenched conservative elements within Iran’s political system will ultimately shape his success both at home and abroad. Pezeshkian’s tenure could mark the beginning of a new chapter for Iran, defined by a delicate balance of tradition and reform.
Source » firstpost