As the saying goes, “There is no smoke without fire…”
Some Iran-based news sources have started publishing hearsay about the secret deal between Tehran and Yerevan regarding arms trade. Although the source of this information has not officially confirmed its veracity, it is alleged that the underhand dealings between the two countries were worth $500 million.
Considering the budget allocated by Armenia to the military sector in the last 4 years, France, Europe and India can be added to the list of active deals.
First, it is necessary to look at the reasons that led Armenia to arm intensively. After the Second Garabagh War, Armenia, which has suffered considerable economic decline, prioritized the strengthening of the military sector. Experts mostly characterise it in two ways: In the first reason, Armenia’s not digesting its humiliating defeat in the 44-day fight in 2020 and the loss of Garabagh, which was held under occupation for decades, is shown as the main reason. The second reason is associated with some Western forces inciting Armenia to arm Yerevan under the guise of “Azerbaijan’s sudden attack plan”. By justifying itself, Armenia, on the other hand, based more on the claim stated in the latter one, says that it armed itself in order to protect its territories from a so-called “possible attack” amidst a continuous offer by Baku for peace negotiation.
Literally, there are different types of wars. Some of them are offensive, and some are provocative. If we look again at September 27, 2020, we can say that it happened because of a sudden attack by the Armenian side. However, in today’s conditions, Armenia’s tendency of rapidly arming itself depicts the impact of some external forces on processes.
It means that the name of neighbouring Iran is mentioned in this list, whether it is true or not. According to an Iranian source, among the weapons sold to Armenia are military drones including Shahed 136, Shahed 129, Shahed 197, Mohajer, and air defence missile systems like 3rd Khordad, Majid, 15th Khordad, and Arman.
Can the Iran-Armenia arms deal be interpreted as an element of influence on Baku-Tel Aviv relations?
Armenia does not have the real military potential to fight another war. However, the willingness of foreign forces to arm Armenia in today’s conditions is more political than the intention to expand its military arsenal. In any case, India and Iran can be applied to this category in the background of Azerbaijan-Pakistan, and Azerbaijan-Israel relations. France is also among the activists of arms suppliers in this regard, but its zeal is more related to its desire for the South Caucasus.
Moreover, Iran, according to its usual character, cannot escape the influence of Israel-Azerbaijani relations, and this somehow makes Tehran stand out as a typically jealous party. Presenting itself as a so-called friendly and brotherly country, official Tehran tries to express its feelings through Armenia. In this case, the permanent issue of Armenia-Azerbaijani relations shows that it is mostly in favour of Iran, France and other parties.
Armenia’s growing military debts against the backdrop of deepening rifts with Moscow
The reasons for the increase in Armenia’s national debt in the last five years are associated with the fact that the pro-Western Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan has brought relations with Russia to a strained level. However, in the last thirty years, Armenia’s military arsenal consisted almost exclusively of Moscow’s assistance. According to some sources, the information on the military debts of Armenia until 2023 is 400 million dollars. Pashinyan claims that since Russia did not deliver the promised weapons in exchange for the amount it received from Armenia, this debt is considered to have already been written off.
Despite this, since 2021, Armenia’s increasing focus on the Western market has also had a serious impact on the national debt. For example, according to the statistics of 2023, Armenia’s national debt surpassed $12 billion, rising by 1.9% since the beginning of the year. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at 48.1%.
Armenian sources say that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s cabinet dissolved the Armenian National Interests Fund, a state-owned enterprise meant to co-invest in major projects alongside foreign entrepreneurs, amid mounting allegations of corruption and mismanagement.
However, Armenian political analysts, who said that Pashinyan looted the state budget, connected the increasing deficit in Armenia’s state budget in recent days with military expenses. The point is that Western sources confirm this in the same way.
As reported by several statistics, the military expenditure in Armenia increased to 1329.50 USD million in 2023 from 795.20 USD million in 2022. Looking back to the period of the last three decades, the military expenditure in Armenia averaged 322.12 USD million from 1992 until 2023, reaching an all-time high of 1329.50 USD million in 2023 and a record low of 0.00 USD million in 1992.
The obtained figures show that Armenia is heavily indebted to the West and beyond and involved in a dangerous game. Yerevan, which bought weapons through more credit loans, is going to sink into debt due to the panic. The situation he is in seriously endangers the future of both the country and the region. Although Armenia is not aware of this, external observations are already making alarming predictions about Armenia in the near future.
Source » azernews