The story: Iran has warned Europe against retaining sanctions that are set to expire under the 2015 nuclear deal. The alert follows reports that European governments intend to renege on promised sanctions relief in October, citing Iran’s supply of drones and possible future missile deliveries to Russia.
If the sanctions are retained, conservative media in Iran have warned that it will likely result in a ramping up of the Iranian nuclear program. On the other hand, the Islamic Republic may respond by abandoning the self-imposed limit on the range of its missiles.
The coverage: Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani on July 3 warned European powers that Iran will respond to any breach of the nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Kanani said Iran will deliver a “balanced and proportional” response if Europe refuses to lift sanctions that are set to expire under the JCPOA.
The 2015 nuclear deal and UN Security Council Resolution 2231 stipulate that the UN must in Oct. 2023 lift restrictions on Iran’s research, development and production of ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons.
The UN must also lift the ban on Iran’s import and export of missile-related technology. The latter covers missiles and drones with a range of 300 km (186 miles) or more. In addition to complying with these UN measures, Europe must in Oct. 2023 also terminate all remaining nuclear-related sanctions.
Kanani’s warning followed reports of European Union member states and the UK intending to breach the JCPOA by maintaining missile sanctions on Iran.
An unnamed diplomat told Reuters on June 29 that Iran had “been told quite clearly” of European plans to keep the sanctions. European diplomats cited Iran’s supply of drones to Russia and the possibility of Tehran providing Moscow with ballistic missiles are among the main reasons for reneging on promised sanctions relief.
Nour News, the media affiliate of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), on July 8 warned of the consequences of Europe retaining sanctions.
The news agency said Iran would in such a scenario continue its “compensatory” nuclear measures. Notably, Iran in 2019 began expanding its nuclear program following the US unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA the previous year.
The conservative newspaper Farhikhtegan charged on July 8 that keeping the missile sanctions would be a “gamble” for the EU.
The paper speculated that the move would provide “nuclear Iran” with “diverse options” with which to respond.
“If Iran is not going to reap the rewards of the few remaining advantages of the JCPOA, it will again reduce its compliance,” Farhikhtegan warned.
The context/analysis: Iran and six world powers signed the landmark nuclear accord in 2015, outlining a series of measures to be taken over the span of years.
With reference to the JCPOA’s impact on the Iranian defense sector, a UN arms embargo imposed on Iran for 13 years expired in Oct. 2020. The UN and European measures slated for Oct. 2023 go further in normalizing Iran’s defense sector.
The JCPOA started unraveling when then-US president Donald Trump (2017-21) unilaterally withdrew from it in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran.
The Islamic Republic waited a year after the US withdrawal before scaling back its commitments under the agreement.
Iran has taken several “compensatory” steps in an apparent effort to compel western powers to revive the nuclear pact.
The Iranian measures include increasing uranium enrichment from 3.67% to 60% and reducing international monitoring of nuclear sites.
Indirect Iran-US talks to revive the JCPOA stalled in Sept. 2022 after anti-establishment protests broke out in Iran.
Following a long hiatus, reports last month indicated that efforts were ongoing behind the scenes to resume the nuclear negotiations.
Tehran and Washington have denied speculation about closing in on an interim deal. Instead, there are indications that an informal understanding designed to bypass scrutiny from the US Congress may be on the table.
In parallel, Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have maintained cooperation to resolve concerns about uranium traces found at three old but undeclared sites. An end to IAEA probes is believed to have been among the previous key obstacles to a revival of the JCPOA.
The US and EU have imposed several rounds of sanctions on Iran over its military cooperation with Russia in the shadow of the Ukraine war.
Iran has confirmed that it provided “a limited number of drones” to Russia before the invasion of Ukraine.
Tehran continues to insist that its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were not meant for the Russian war effort.
The growing Iranian-Russia cooperation has sparked strong western criticism. EU diplomats routinely and publicly call on Tehran to end its “unacceptable” military relationship with Moscow.
The future: In the face of the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and subsequent imposition of wide-ranging western sanctions under other labels, hardliners in Tehran feel vindicated in their conviction that Washington has never intended to engage in good faith. A European decision to renege on promised sanctions relief this autumn would likely fuel this trajectory.
While further raising the uranium enrichment level may be a step too far, Iran may react to a European decision to retain sanctions by increasing the speed with which it produces highly enriched uranium.
Under the JCPOA, the Iranian parliament was set to ratify the Additional Protocol later this year. However, Iran has halted enhanced monitoring of its facilities in response to the US exit from the 2015 deal. This dynamic could be deepened late this year, although it would further complicate cooperation with the IAEA.
Last but certainly not least, a European refusal to lift missile sanctions could lead Iran to abandon its self-imposed missile range limit of 2,000 km (1,240 miles). Such a measure could put major European capitals within the reach of Tehran’s missile arsenal in a relatively short time span.
Source » amwaj.media