Hidden from many in the West is the internal chaos caused by yesterday’s events in Iran. The past 24 hours have exposed the vulnerability of the clerical regime, and for the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – who rules with absolute power – this will be the main takeaway from yesterday’s helicopter crash and the death of president Ebrahim Raisi.
The 85-year-old ayatollah will surely view the crash that killed Raisi as a “test-run” for his own death and succession. And when seen in this light, the regime’s handling of the past 24 hours will be extremely concerning.
As part of his 2019 “Second Phase of the Islamic Revolution” manifesto, the ageing ayatollah has spent the past 5 years “purifying” the regime, empowering a new generation of ideological absolutists, in order to complete his personalization of power project to guarantee a smooth and orderly succession when he dies.
The supreme leader did this to control his elites, knowing full well of the divisions that could potentially appear after his death – and, more worryingly, that the Iranian population, who overwhelming seek regime change, would use Khamenei’s death as an opportunity to bring about the destabilization and the collapse of the regime and therefore his legacy.
To mitigate this scenario, the purification process over the past 5 years has installed a new generation of Khamenei absolutists across every key position, fully prioritizing ideological commitment over experience or technical expertise.
Raisi’s de facto appointment as president in June 2021 was part of this “Second Phase”. Since then, the supreme leader has installed a new generation of extremists across all key political, military and bureaucratic positions – something the West has completely overlooked in its obsession with restoring the 2015 nuclear deal. The regime’s goal in Iran has been ensuring Khamenei’s ideology outlives him, and that there is an orderly succession process from start to finish
The handling of the Raisi helicopter crash and subsequent death has been anything but this. From start to finish the new zealots at the helm have demonstrated utter incompetence: failing to control communications, not sticking to well-rehearsed emergency protocols and ultimately entering full panic mode.
This has exposed the deep vulnerabilities of the regime. Khamenei may have thought that prioritizing ideological commitment over experience or expertise would help to control his elites. In reality, it appears to have exacerbated the incompetence of the regime as this new cohort clearly lacks the capabilities to guarantee a smooth succession.
Khamenei, who has preserved the survival of his Islamist regime by consistently spilling blood on the Iranian streets, will be fully aware that if regime’s elites handle his death as they’ve handled Raisi’s, his project could unravel completely.
But as the age old saying goes: another person’s loss is another person’s gain. While chaos of the past 24 hours will have increased the ayatollah’s angst, it has simultaneously boosted the Iranian people’s morale.
Ignore Iranian state-tv propaganda, currently being recirculated on mainstream media in the West. Iranians aren’t “flocking” to mourn Raisi’s passing: they’re celebrating it. The death of the president, known as the “Butcher of Tehran”, was greeted with fireworks and the raising of alcoholic beverages.
Like Khamenei, the Iranian people have been closely monitoring the regime’s handling of the crash and how the elites have gone panicked. And they are surely growing in confidence that Khamenei’s death – and the subsequent and inevitable elite chaos that it will cause – will create the best opportunity to bring an end to the Islamic Republic once and for all.
This is an opening that should be exploited. We must support the Iranian people’s democratic ambitions to bring an end to a regime that kills its own people, seeks to eradicate the world’s only Jewish state, and exports terror around the world.
Instead of offering condolences to the regime – as EU officials have shamelessly done – the West should be focusing on the Iranian people in its public diplomacy. It should be amplifying the calls of the Iranian people for an end to the Islamic Republic. Simultaneously, the U.S. government and its allies should consider covert operations – both cyber and kinetic – to exacerbate the divisions within the regime’s elite and embolden the Iranian people against the regime.
Make no mistake: the collapse of the Islamic Republic will be the single most liberating event for the Iranian people, the Middle East and global security.
Source » telegraph