On Saturday, Iran’s Fars news agency reported that “the commander of Iran’s Army Major General Moussavi warned that the country’s Armed Forces will respond to any strategic mistake by enemies with a crushing strike.” And so the meandering, one-way path towards an ‘inadvertent’ conflict continues. “Thank God,” General Moussavi reportedly told his army commanders, “today, all army units enjoy high morale and full combat preparedness and if the enemy makes a miscalculation or strategic mistake, they will receive a response which makes them regret.”
Fars reported that Moussavi “underlined the importance of vigilance and preparedness of Army units as a deterrence against the enemy threats, and assured the nation that his forces will defend the country’s security and interests to the last drop of their blood.”
Also on Saturday, the hardline head of Iran’s IRGC said that the country is “in an atmosphere of a full-blown intelligence war with the U.S. and the front of enemies of the Revolution and the Islamic system… We are able to defeat the enemy in intelligence war; breaking the enemy’s will to use power means disarming the enemy.” According to a state news agency, Hossein Salami called the U.S. “a declining power, but cautioned all about its conspiracies.”
After saying last week that Iran is “on the cusp of a full-scale confrontation with the enemy,” Salami, who has said in the past said that Iran “would welcome” war with the United States, also said on Saturday that “our other enemies act based on rules, similar to the U.S., and whenever they feel danger, they stay away from us. They believed that the more they increased the pressures, the more the Iranians more be reluctant to show reaction, but the Islamic Republic caused a collapse of their assumptions by means of its recent decision-makings and moves,” adding that “this atmosphere is a combination of psychological warfare and cyber operation, military provocations, public diplomacy and intimidation tactics.”
On the other side of the standoff, Saudi Arabia’s press reported the same day that the U.S. has sought and received agreement from a number of GCC states to deploy its forces on their territory. “The main objective of the move is to allow Washington and Gulf nations to work together to deter any aggression or military threat from Iran against its neighbors or U.S. interests in the region.” The newspaper quoted sources as claimed that “a number of Arab nations also plan to hold a summit on the sidelines of the Islamic summit scheduled to take place in Makkah during the last 10 days of Ramadan… countries “united by principles and visions that are consistent with regional and international developments.”
Also on Saturday, the Federal Aviation Administration warned that commercial airlines flying over the region could be accidentally targeted given the “increasing inadvertent risk to U.S. civil aviation operations due to the potential for miscalculation or misidentification,” with Iranian proxies in Iraq cited as the threat.
All of this seems at odds with the claims being made by leaders both sides. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif played down talk of conflict at the end of a week of diplomatic travels to Japan, India and China, saying “there will be no war because neither we want a war, nor has anyone the idea or illusion that it can confront Iran in the region.”
“We rest assured,” Zarif said from Beijing, “as stated by Supreme Leader, that there will be no war because neither do we want war nor does anyone have the imagination or illusion of the ability to confront Iran in the region but it is necessary to clarify the dangerous moves inside the U.S. to the American people.”
On Friday, Zarif had tweeted that “with the B-team doing one thing & Donald Trump saying another thing, it is apparently the U.S. that ‘doesn’t know what to think’. We in Iran have actually known what to think for millennia—and about the U.S., since 1953. At this point, that is certainly ‘a good thing!'”
This came in response to President Trump’s tweet that “the Fake News Media is hurting our Country with its fraudulent and highly inaccurate coverage of Iran. It is scattershot, poorly sourced (made up), and DANGEROUS. At least Iran doesn’t know what to think, which at this point may very well be a good thing!”
“Mike Pompeo: the U.S. Does Not Seek War with Iran,” ran a caption to a Fars cartoon on Sunday. The cartoon itself depicted the U.S. Secretary of State offering a handshake, but with a gun hidden behind a false hand and U.S. and Israeli flags on view.
This is an escalating situation that combines public brinksmanship with background confusion, and all the while more force being deployed into the region or mobilized if already there. And while the U.S. and potentially Iran can hold a line of control over their troops, the same cannot be said for the proxy militia forces now being brought into play.
On Sunday, the Saudi Arabian government reported that “His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, Crown Prince, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, has received a telephone call from U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. During the telephone conversation, they discussed developments in the region and efforts to enhance security and stability in the region.”
Saudi Arabia “is doing its best” to avoid a full-blown conflict in the region, but “stands ready to respond with all strength and determination to defend itself from any threat,” said the country’s Foreign Minister on Sunday. Adel Al-Jubeir accused Iran of “committing countless crimes” which risked destabilizing the region, and said that “our security and religion are a red line.”
There is no beginning, middle or end game currently in sight.
And so there remains real international confusion as to the U.S. game plan. Memories do not need to be long ones to recall how easy it is to become embroiled in Middle Eastern escalation, and how difficult to become un-embroiled afterward. On Saturday, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas reflected this, questioning the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Iran ‘nuclear deal’ and saying that “we Europeans firmly believe that the strategy of maximum pressure on Iran won’t help. We emphasize dialog rather than rhetorical provocation.”
The attacks on four oil tankers off the coast of the UAE are now deemed “highly likely” to have been facilitated by Iran, the drone attacks on a Saudi pipeline, in the words of the country’s vice minister for defense, were “terrorist acts, ordered by the regime in Tehran, and carried out by the Houthis.”
And with all this, the meandering, one-way path towards an ‘inadvertent’ conflict continues.
The leaders of Iran and the U.S. publicly maintain that a full-blown conflict is not on the cards. Meanwhile, the words and deeds of those actually playing their hands on the ground continue to suggest otherwise. And it is the mobilization of proxies on both sides that carries the most serious risk of writing the script for what happens next.
Source » forbes