One of the primary reasons for the Iranian regime’s ongoing economic and political crisis is its inability to resolve the issue of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) bills. The regime has deliberately postponed reviewing these bills for years, reflecting a deeper crisis rooted in its fundamental contradictions.
The FATF requires Iran to ratify and implement the Palermo Convention and the Combating the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) framework. These measures target transnational organized crime and terrorist financing. However, ratifying these bills poses a direct threat to a regime that has historically supported armed proxy groups and smuggling networks. For Iran’s ruling establishment, particularly its religious and political elite, these requirements represent an existential challenge they are unwilling to accept.
Contradictions in Decision-Making
The regime’s stance on FATF reveals an inherent contradiction. On the one hand, economic isolation and the need to reintegrate into the global financial system make FATF compliance unavoidable. On the other, approving the bills would impose severe restrictions on key institutions like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and limit the regime’s ability to fund proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
This contradiction has sparked heated debates within the regime’s power structures. For instance, Mohsen Dehnavi, spokesman for the Expediency Council, recently announced that the FATF bills would undergo “technical, specialized, and expert reviews.” However, this statement triggered disputes among members of parliament, culminating in a tense exchange that forced Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to clarify:
“My positions during the review of FATF are clear and transparent in the Expediency Council. We stand by our principled positions, and this is our rational and revolutionary duty. As a parliament, we expressed our opinion during the 10th parliament, and now we have no legal role in the case of FATF. According to the constitution, the matter falls under the jurisdiction of the Expediency Council.”
Internal Disputes and Supreme Leader’s Role
The review of the FATF bills has advanced to the Expediency Council with the discretion and approval of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Yet, resistance remains. In a notable act of defiance, 120 members of parliament expressed their objection in a letter to Sadeq Larijani, chairman of the Expediency Council, challenging the decision to review the bills.
Contrasting this opposition, Mahmoud Vaezi, Supervisor of the Presidential Administration of Iran, stated, “Our interest is to accept the FATF.” This divergence underscores the regime’s fragmented approach to critical decisions.
Economic Implications of FATF Compliance
The regime’s economy relies heavily on circumventing sanctions, rent-seeking, corruption, and non-transparent activities. Accepting the FATF would dismantle these mechanisms, exposing the regime to international scrutiny and prosecution. On the other hand, continued non-compliance deepens Iran’s economic isolation and exacerbates the livelihood crisis faced by its population. This, in turn, fuels public discontent and heightens the risk of uprisings.
A Choice Between Rapid and Gradual Decline
The regime now faces two stark options: accept FATF compliance and face a reduction in financial resources for its proxies or reject it and endure what officials have called “self-sanctioning,” hastening economic collapse. This dilemma essentially forces the regime to choose between “rapid self-destruction” and “gradual self-destruction.”
The Broader Implications
This deadlock, like other crises confronting the regime, further weakens its foundations. While the regime’s internal contradictions and inability to resolve such issues persist, the ultimate resolution lies beyond its grasp. Fundamental change can only emerge from the Iranian people and their organized resistance. These crises, while deepening the regime’s instability, pave the way for transformative change driven by the people.
Source » irannewsupdate