From the report
In 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran faced military and strategic setbacks, largely at the hands of Israel and the United States, that appear to dramatically diminish advantages and leverage Tehran had built up through years of investment. Blows to Iranian regional partners like Lebanese Hezbollah and the former Asad regime in Syria, as well as the underwhelming performance and uncertain future of Iran’s once-vaunted ballistic missile program, suggest that Iran’s leaders may no longer be able to rely as much on these traditional asymmetric methods of Iranian power projection. In their stead, the Iranian government could seek to bolster its position and to deter further U.S. and Israeli actions by other means, including the potential weaponization of Iran’s nuclear program or attempts to engage with the incoming U.S. Administration. Iran and the United States do not have formal diplomatic relations and have largely acted antagonistically since the Iranian Revolution of 1979 but have periodically participated in bilateral or multilateral negotiations. Opposition to the United States and its regional influence has been a defining feature of the Islamic Republic’s identity and ideology since its establishment.
Successive U.S. Administrations have identified a number of activities by Iran and its regional partners as challenges to U.S. policy, including the October 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel; subsequent operations by other Iranian partners in solidarity with Hamas; and the Iranian government’s human rights violations, nuclear program, and deepening ties with Russia and the People’s Republic of China. Congress has played a major role in shaping U.S. policy toward Iran, including by authorizing extensive U.S. sanctions, scrutinizing past diplomatic agreements with Iran, and funding support to U.S. partners facing Iranian threats. Some issues of potential congressional engagement or interest include
Iran’s Foreign Policy. Setbacks in 2024 may raise questions about the future of the Iranian government’s longtime strategy to erode U.S. influence in the Middle East and project power in neighboring states by backing a range of regional armed groups (sometimes known as the “axis of resistance”). Israel severely degraded Iran-backed groups in Lebanon and Gaza in 2024, and regime change in Syria removed a longtime Iranian ally and key facilitator of Iranian support to Lebanese Hezbollah. Iran-backed groups in Yemen and Iraq appear to retain considerable military capabilities and domestic political influence but may be less able or inclined to play as active a role against Israel or the United States as Hezbollah or Hamas. In part to counter U.S. pressure, the Iranian government has for several years sought to strengthen its economic and military ties with Russia and China—for example, by exporting UAVs and missiles to bolster Russian military operations in Ukraine, and selling oil to China—while also restoring ties with Middle Eastern states, including some U.S. partners.
Iran’s Domestic Politics. Iran’s authoritarian political system appears relatively stable but has experienced stresses since its founding in 1979, including large-scale protest movements. Iran’s government violently cracked down on protests in 2022-2023 related at least in part to women’s rights, but the grievances underlying them remain unresolved amid continued government repression and economic hardship. The election of relative moderate Masoud Pezeshkian as president, after his hardline predecessor was killed in a helicopter accident, may signal continued public discontent. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (born 1939), who has no publicly designated successor, remains Supreme Leader and primary decisionmaker.
Iran’s Nuclear Program. U.S. policymakers have for decades signaled concern about Iran’s nuclear program. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) imposed restraints on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for relief from most U.S. and international sanctions. The Trump Administration ceased U.S. participation in the JCPOA, reimposing all U.S. sanctions by 2019; Iran has since decreased compliance with its JCPOA nuclear commitments and barred some international inspectors. The U.S. intelligence community continues to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking nuclear weapons-related activities, but that Iran could enrich enough uranium for more than a dozen nuclear weapons within weeks if it chose to do so. In 2024, Iranian officials and pundits have engaged in what appear to be unprecedentedly open discussions on the subject of possible nuclear weapons development.
The U.S. government has employed various tools to counter what U.S. officials describe as Iranian threats, including comprehensive sanctions, limited military action, support for partners like Israel, and diplomatic engagement with leaders in Iran and other countries. These tools appear to have contributed to the difficult strategic position in which Iran finds itself, facing the degradation of some of its key allies, its own military shortcomings, and domestic uncertainty. Still, the Iranian government has remained able to project influence in the Middle East, contest U.S. interests there and beyond, and continues to develop ties with Russia and China. In this context, Members of Congress may consider U.S. policy goals and specific measures toward Iran, including efforts to counter Iran’s regional influence and deter its nuclear development activities.
Report to Congress on Iran and U.S. Policy
U.S. Naval Institute Staff
April 24, 2024 9:19 AM
The following is the April 22, 2024, Congressional Research Service report, Iran: Background and U.S. Policy.
From the report
Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have been largely antagonistic since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, with tensions spiking again since 2023. Of particular concern for U.S. policymakers in 2024 are Iran’s regional activities and those of its partners in light of the October 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel; ongoing attacks against U.S. forces and additional targets in the region by other Iran-backed groups such as the Houthis; and the first-ever direct Iranian military attack against Israel in April 2024. The Iranian government’s human rights violations, its nuclear program, and its increasingly close relationships with Russia and China also pose challenges for the United States. Congress has played a major role in shaping U.S. policy toward Iran, including by authorizing extensive U.S. sanctions, seeking to influence diplomatic engagement with Iran, and funding support to U.S. partners facing Iranian threats. Selected issues on which Congress has engaged include:
Iran’s Foreign Policy and Support for Terrorist Groups. Iran’s government seeks, among other goals, to erode U.S. influence in the Middle East while projecting power in neighboring states by backing a range of regional armed groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and other U.S.-designated terrorist organizations. Since the outbreak of war in Gaza, Iran-backed groups throughout the Middle East (which sometimes refer to themselves as the “axis of resistance”) have conducted attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria and international shipping in the Red Sea, drawing retaliatory U.S. military action. Observers debate the nature of Tehran’s relationships with and influence over these groups. While neither the United States nor Iran appears to seek a direct military confrontation, the evolving threat perceptions, political calculations, and strategic goals of multiple actors in a dynamic combat environment could increase the risk of such a conflict, particularly in light of Iran’s unprecedented April 2024 attack on Israel. Israeli, U.S., and other partner forces reportedly intercepted almost all of the Iranian drones and missiles used in that attack; days later, Israel reportedly responded with an attack near an Iranian military base.
Prisoner Exchange and Fund Transfer. In September 2023, the United States and Iran concluded a prisoner exchange and the United States facilitated the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian funds to Qatar. Some in Congress have criticized the move; the Biden Administration has said it will prevent Iran’s use of the funds in the aftermath of the Hamas attack on Israel.
Iran’s Nuclear Program. U.S. policymakers have for decades signaled concern about Iran’s nuclear program. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) imposed restraints on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for relief from most U.S. and international sanctions; the Trump Administration ceased U.S. participation in the JCPOA, reimposing U.S. sanctions, and Biden Administration attempts to revive the JCPOA stalled in fall 2022. Iran has since decreased compliance with its JCPOA nuclear commitments and barred some international inspectors in the context of heightened regional tensions. The U.S. intelligence community continues to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking nuclear weapons-related activities, but that Iran could enrich enough uranium for three nuclear devices within weeks if it chose to do so.
Human Rights. Iran’s authoritarian government is accused of overseeing and perpetrating a wide range of human rights abuses, including the violent repression of protests like those that broke out after the September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s mandatory hijab (or head covering) law and died in custody. Those protests appear to have subsided but the grievances underlying them remain unresolved amid continued government repression.
Sanctions. Since 1979, successive U.S. Administrations have imposed economic sanctions in an effort to change various aspects of Iran’s behavior, often at the direction of Congress. U.S. sanctions include measures targeting Iran’s energy sector, its arms and weapons-related technology transfers, its financial sector, and various non-energy industries and sectors.
Iran’s Military and Foreign Policy. In addition to its support for allied groups throughout the Middle East and arms sales elsewhere, Iran maintains what U.S. officials describe as “the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region” and has developed a range of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These activities give Iran considerable regional influence, which the Iranian government has sought to reinforce by taking steps to strengthen its economic and military ties with China and Russia—for example, by exporting UAVs to bolster Russian military operations in Ukraine and selling oil to China.
The U.S. government has used various tools, including comprehensive sanctions, limited military action, and diplomatic engagement with leaders in Iran and other countries to counter what the U.S. officials describe as Iranian threats to U.S. interests. The Iranian government faces some challenges at home but retains considerable influence in the Middle East region, is developing new ties to Russia and China (including via Iran’s BRICS membership), and remains able to contest U.S. interests in the region and beyond. In this context, Members of Congress may consider U.S. and Iranian policy goals, the stability of Iran’s government, and efforts to counter Iran’s regional influence and deter its nuclear development activities.
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